Journal
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING
Volume 16, Issue 3, Pages 333-347Publisher
ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
DOI: 10.1016/S0169-2070(00)00048-0
Keywords
asymmetric adjustment; Fourier approximation; non-linear model
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Linear time-series models are often inadequate to capture the presence of asymmetric adjustment and/or conditional volatility. Parametric models of asymmetric adjustment and ARCH-type models necessitate specifying the nature of the non-linear coefficient. If there is little a priori information concerning the actual form of the non-linearity, the estimated model can suffer from a misspecification error. We show that a non-linear time-series can be represented by a deterministic time-dependent coefficient model without first specifying the nature of the non-linearity. The methodology is applied to real GDP and the NYSE Transportation Index. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
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