Initial epidemic area is strongly associated with the yearly extent of soybean rust spread in North America

Hosts of soybean rust (Phakopsora pachyrhizi) are sensitive to low temperatures, limiting this obligate parasite in the United States to overwintering sites in a restricted area along the Gulf Coast. This temperature sensitivity of soybean rust hosts allowed us to study spatial spread of epidemic invasions over similar territory for seven sequential years, 2005-2011. The epidemic front expanded slowly from early April through July, with the majority of expansion occurring from August through November. There was a 7.4-fold range of final epidemic extent (0.4-3.0 million km(2)) from the year of smallest final disease extent (2011) to that of the largest (2007). The final epidemic area of each year was regressed against epidemic areas recorded at one-week intervals to determine the association of final epidemic extent with current epidemic extent. Coefficients of determination for these regressions varied between 0.44 and 0.62 during April and May. The correlation coefficients varied between 0.70 and 0.96 from early June through October, and then increased monotonically to 1.0 by year's end. Thus, the spatial extent of disease when the epidemics began rapid expansion may have been a crucial contributor to subsequent spread of soybean rust. Our analyses used presence/absence data at the county level to evaluate the spread of the epidemic front only; the subsequent local intensification of disease could be strongly influenced by other factors, including weather.