Journal
BIOLOGICAL INVASIONS
Volume 13, Issue 5, Pages 1209-1227Publisher
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s10530-011-9952-7
Keywords
Alien invaders; Climate change; Combined predictive modelling; Land-use change; Rare species; Species distribution models
Categories
Funding
- FCT (Portuguese Science Foundation) [SFRH/BD/40668/2007, SFRH/BD/31576/2006]
- Swiss NCCR (National Centres of Competence in Research)
- Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia [SFRH/BD/31576/2006, SFRH/BD/40668/2007] Funding Source: FCT
Ask authors/readers for more resources
Protecting native biodiversity against alien invasive species requires powerful methods to anticipate these invasions and to protect native species assumed to be at risk. Here, we describe how species distribution models (SDMs) can be used to identify areas predicted as both suitable for rare native species and highly susceptible to invasion by alien species, at present and under future climate and land-use scenarios. To assess the condition and dynamics of such conflicts, we developed a combined predictive modelling (CPM) approach, which predicts species distributions by combining two SDMs fitted using subsets of predictors classified as acting at either regional or local scales. We illustrate the CPM approach for an alien invader and a rare species associated with similar habitats in northwest Portugal. Combined models predict a wider variety of potential species responses, providing more informative projections of species distributions and future dynamics than traditional, non-combined models. They also provide more informative insight regarding current and future rare-invasive conflict areas. For our studied species, conflict areas of highest conservation relevance are predicted to decrease over the next decade, supporting previous reports that some invasive species may contract their geographic range and impact due to climate change. More generally, our results highlight the more informative character of the combined approach to address practical issues in conservation and management programs, especially those aimed at mitigating the impact of invasive plants, land-use and climate changes in sensitive regions.
Authors
I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.
Reviews
Recommended
No Data Available