Journal
BIOLOGICAL INVASIONS
Volume 13, Issue 12, Pages 2785-2797Publisher
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s10530-011-9963-4
Keywords
Biological invasions; Model validation; Occurrence data; Potential distribution models
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Funding
- Spanish MEC [CGL2004-0439/BOS]
- Fundacion BBVA
- European Distributed Institute of Taxonomy (EDIT)
- MEC (Ministerio de Educacion y Ciencia, Spain) [EX-2007-0381]
- MEC
- Microsoft Research
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Risk maps summarizing landscape suitability of novel areas for invading species can be valuable tools for preventing species' invasions or controlling their spread, but methods employed for development of such maps remain variable and unstandardized. We discuss several considerations in development of such models, including types of distributional information that should be used, the nature of explanatory variables that should be incorporated, and caveats regarding model testing and evaluation. We highlight that, in the case of invasive species, such distributional predictions should aim to derive the best hypothesis of the potential distribution of the species by using (1) all distributional information available, including information from both the native range and other invaded regions; (2) predictors linked as directly as is feasible to the physiological requirements of the species; and (3) modelling procedures that carefully avoid overfitting to the training data. Finally, model testing and evaluation should focus on well-predicted presences, and less on efficient prediction of absences; a k-fold regional cross-validation test is discussed.
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