Journal
BIOMETRICS
Volume 56, Issue 3, Pages 951-956Publisher
WILEY
DOI: 10.1111/j.0006-341X.2000.00951.x
Keywords
Bayesian inference; herring gulls; mallards; marginal inference; Markov chain Monte Carlo; maximum likelihood; ridge; ring-recovery data
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Vounatsou and Smith (1995, Biometrics 51, 687-708) describe the modern Bayesian analysis of ring-recovery data. Here we discuss and extend their work. We draw different conclusions from two major data analyses. We emphasize the extreme sensitivity of certain parameter estimates to the choice of prior distribution and conclude that naive use of Bayesian methods in this area can be misleading. Additionally, we explain the discrepancy between the Bayesian and classical analyses when the likelihood surface has a flat ridge; In this case, when there is no unique maximum likelihood estimate, the Bayesian estimators are remarkably precise.
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