Management of forests to reduce the risk of abiotic damage - a review with particular reference to the effects of strong winds

This paper describes the process of managing risks to reduce abiotic damage to forests and gives particular emphasis to wind damage and to methods of risk assessment. A detailed description of the ForestGALES wind risk model is used to demonstrate the deterministic/probabilistic approach to risk assessment. The importance of quantitative risk estimation is illustrated by model output comparing a range of silvicultural strategies and site characteristics. The results illustrate how difficult it is to make general statements about risk and how management response has to be 'context sensitive'. Any response must be appropriate to the level of risk, the options for risk reduction and the implications of damage. Mathematical models provide an opportunity for objectively calculating the risks to forests and will in the future allow forest managers to make informed decisions about how best to manage forests in order to minimise these risks. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.