Journal
BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION
Volume 141, Issue 10, Pages 2625-2631Publisher
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.biocon.2008.07.028
Keywords
Conservation planning; Discounting; Multiple species; Objective function; Time horizon; Time preferences
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Survival probability within a certain time horizon T is a common measure of population viability. The choice of T implicitly involves a time preference, similar to economic discounting: conservation success is evaluated at the time horizon T, while all effects that occur later than T are not considered. Despite the obvious relevance of the time horizon, ecological studies seldom analyze its impact on the evaluation of conservation options. In this paper, we show that, while the choice of T does not change the ranking of conservation options for single species under stationary conditions, it may substantially change conservation decisions for multiple species. We conclude that it is of crucial importance to investigate the sensitivity of model results to the choice of the time horizon or other measures of time preference when prioritizing biodiversity conservation efforts. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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