The sensitivity of Australian fire danger to climate change

Global climate change, such as that due to the proposed enhanced greenhouse effect, is likely to have a significant effect on biosphere-atmosphere interactions, including bushfire regimes. This study quantifies the possible impact of climate change on fire regimes by estimating changes in fire weather and the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FDI), an index that is used throughout Australia to estimate fire danger. The CSIRO 9-level general circulation model (CSIRO9 GCM) is used to simulate daily and seasonal fire danger for the present Australian climate and for a doubled-CO(2) climate. The impact assessment includes validation of the GCMs daily control simulation and the derivation of 'correction factors' which improve the accuracy of the fire danger simulation. In summary, the general impact of doubled-CO(2) is to increase fire danger at all sites by increasing the number of days of very high and extreme fire danger. Seasonal fire danger responds most to the large CO(2)-induced changes in maximum temperature.