On the future of technological forecasting

Technological forecasting is now poised to respond to the emerging needs of private and public sector organizations in the highly competitive global environment. The history of the subject and its Variant forms, including impact assessment, national foresight studies, roadmapping, and competitive technological intelligence, shows how it has responded to changing institutional motivations. Renewed focus on innovation, attention to science-based opportunities, and broad social and political factors will bring renewed attention to technological forecasting in industry, government, and academia. Promising new tools are anticipated, borrowing variously from fields such as political science, computer science, scientometrics. innovation management, and complexity science, (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc.