Delayed triggering of the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake by viscoelastic stress transfer

Stress changes in the crust due to an earthquake can hasten the failure of neighbouring faults and induce earthquake sequences in some cases(1-5). The 1999 Hector Mine earthquake in southern California (magnitude 7.1) occurred only 20 km from, and 7 years after, the 1992 Landers earthquake (magnitude 7.3). This suggests that the Hector Mine earthquake was triggered in some fashion by the earlier event. But uncertainties in the slip distribution and rock friction properties associated with the Landers earthquake have led to widely varying estimates of both the magnitude and sign of the resulting stress change that would be induced at the location of the Hector Mine hypocentre-with estimates varying from -1.4 bar (ref. 6) to +0.5 bar (ref. 7). More importantly, coseismic stress changes alone cannot satisfactorily explain the delay of 7 years between the two events. Here we present the results of a three-dimensional viscoelastic model that simulates stress transfer from the ductile lower crust and upper mantle to the brittle upper crust in the 7 years following the Landers earthquake. Using viscoelastic parameters that can reproduce the observed horizontal surface deformation following the Landers earthquake, our calculations suggest that lower-crustal or upper-mantle flow can lead to postseismic stress increases of up to 1-2 bar at the location of the Hector Mine hypocentre during this time period, contributing to the eventual occurrence of the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake. These results attest to the importance of considering viscoelastic processes in the assessment of seismic hazard(8-11).