Model-based scenarios for the epidemiology of HIV/AIDS: the consequences of highly active antiretroviral therapy

A system dynamics model of HIV/AIDS epidemiology is employed to simulate the effects of triple combination antiretroviral therapy in the treatment of HIV/AIDS. The epidemic data on homosexual men in the UK (1981-1998) have been used to fit the baseline model. The new combination therapies, which supplanted antiviral mono and dual therapy in 1996, are proving to be the most effective prophylaxis yet for halting viral replication in vivo, but many uncertainties still surround their use. A range of model-generated scenarios are created as a means of considering these uncertainties. Possible futures for the HIV/AIDS epidemic are constructed. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.