Photovoltaic market and costs forecast based on a demand elasticity model

A model of the increase in sales of photovoltaic modules is presented, based on coupling the learning curve and the demand elasticity equations. The model, solved for constant demand elasticity, shows good agreement with past sales data, better than any exponential growth curve. We have used this model, properly refined, to extrapolate the market evolution for the next half century, and we have compared the results with the goals of the RIGES scenario for CO2 abatement, presented to the Rio Conference of 1992. The model predicts a very fast growth that will slow down when a certain level of annual sales is reached. It is uncertain if the size of the photovoltaics industry will reach a level with a major environmental impact. New technological findings may be the fastest way to reach the environmental goals, but changes of the present marketing scheme or electricity price increases may also lead to the desired environmental impact in the first half of the century. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.