4.5 Article

Rank tests for nonlinear cointegration

Journal

JOURNAL OF BUSINESS & ECONOMIC STATISTICS
Volume 19, Issue 3, Pages 331-340

Publisher

AMER STATISTICAL ASSOC
DOI: 10.1198/073500101681019981

Keywords

arcsine distribution; stochastic trends; unit roots

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A test procedure based on ranks is suggested to test for nonlinear cointegration. For two (or more) time series it is assumed that monotonic transformations exist such that the normalized series can asymptotically be represented as Wiener processes. Rank-rest procedures based on the difference between the sequences of ranks are suggested. If there is no cointegration between the rime series, the sequences of ranks tend to diverge. whereas under cointegration the sequences of ranks evolve similarly. Monte Carlo simulations suggest that for a wide range of nonlinear models the rank tests perform better than their parametric competitors. To test for nonlinear cointegration. a variable addition test based on ranks is suggested. In an empirical illustration, the rank statistics are applied to test the relationship between bond yields with different rimes to maturity.

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