Learning Bayesian network parameters from small data sets: application of Noisy-OR gates

Existing data sets of cases can significantly reduce the knowledge engineering effort required to parameterize Bayesian networks. Unfortunately, when a data set is small, many conditioning cases are represented by too few or no data records and they do not offer sufficient basis for learning conditional probability distributions, We propose a method that uses Noisy-OR gates to reduce the data requirements in learning conditional probabilities. We test our method on HEPAR II, a model for diagnosis of liver disorders, whose parameters are extracted from a real, small set of patient records. Diagnostic accuracy of the multiple-disorder model enhanced with the Noisy-OR parameters was 6.7% better than the accuracy of the plain multiple-disorder model and 14.3% better than a single-disorder diagnosis model. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.