Incidence of asthma and its determinants among adults in Spain

The objective was to measure the incidence of asthma and its determinants in Spain, where the prevalence of asthma is low to medium. A follow-up of subjects participating in the European Community Respiratory Health Survey (ECRHS) was conducted in 1998-1999 (n = 1,640, 85% of those eligible). Subjects were ran om selected from the general population and were 20 to 44 yr old in 1991-1993. Time of follow-up was on average 6.75 yr (range, 5.3 to 7.9 yr). Asthma was defined as reporting ever having had asthma. The incidence of asthma was 5.53 (95% confidence interval, 4.28-7.16) per 1,000 person-years (6.88 in females, 4.04 in males). Incidence was highest in subjects who at the baseline survey had bronchial hyperresponsiveness (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 3.85), in those with positive IgE against timothy grass (IRR, 3.16), and in females (IRR, 1.80). These results persisted after adjusting for respiratory symptoms at baseline. There was no significant association (p < 0.2) with high total serum IgE, atopy defined by reactivity to any allergen, smoking, occupational exposure, or maternal asthma. A sensitivity analysis using four definitions of population at risk yielded incidence rates varying from 5.53 to 1.50. In this population of subjects without self-reported asthma or asthma-type symptoms at baseline, bronchial hyperresponsiveness and IgE reactivity to grass appeared as the main determinants of new asthma.