Different factors affect the local distribution, persistence and spread of alien tree species in floodplain forests

Floodplain forests are characterized by high and increasing levels of invasions by plant species, but the factors that drive their spread are insufficiently understood. Using data from 708 plots surveyed twice (1998, 2008) supplemented with further data (management, stand age, distance to dispersal corridors, type of ecosystems invaded) we analyzed the factors which shape the local distribution, growth, persistence and spread of three invasive alien tree species (Acer negundo, Ailanthus altissima, Robinia pseudoacacia) in the National Park Donau-Auen in Austria. Using Generalized Linear Models (GLMs), we found that the distribution of the study species per plot is contingent on stand age (R. pseudoacacia), type of floodplain forest (A. negundo, A. altissima) and distance to the next water body (A. negundo). For all study species, colonization of new plots between both surveys is driven by short distance spread from already established invasion foci. Moreover, recipient habitats (softwood vs. hardwood floodplain forests) modify invasion success in species-specific ways. The probability of occurrence and colonization of plots located in softwood floodplain forests is higher for A. negundo, whereas A. altissima more frequently colonizes hardwood floodplain forests. Persistence of R. pseudoacacia decreases with stand age, whereas its growth rate is significantly higher in plots located in zones where management is allowed than in those which are not managed. Persistence and growth of the other two study species were not related to any explanatory variables analyzed. The on-going spread of the study species in the National Park Donau-Auen suggests that their local distribution is in disequilibrium, i.e. not all suitable habitat patches have yet been colonized. This implies that increased management efforts are necessary to reverse the spread of alien tree species in the study area and to maintain the high conservation value of this iconic area which protects one of the largest floodplain forests in Europe.