Journal
ANNALS OF HUMAN BIOLOGY
Volume 28, Issue 6, Pages 599-615Publisher
TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
DOI: 10.1080/03014460110046064
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Time-series analysis of parish register series can be used to study human population dynamics at three different le els: (i) The metapopulation of preindustrial rural England. A short wavelength, exogenous oscillation in the burials series of 404 parishes can be detected which, it is suggested, was driven by a cycle of trial nutrition associated with wheat prices. (ii) Individual populations, where long-term endogenous oscillations in baptisms and burials of wavelength 30-32 years or 43-44 years can be detected. Their characteristics and causes are explored and elucidated by matrix modelling. (iii) The separate neonatal, post-neonatal, child and adult mortalities in an individual population each show an exogenous short wavelength oscillation and a model is, presented to show how these cycles were driven by an oscillation in grain prices and how they interacted. Together, they formed the feedback in a saturated. density-dependent Population which was fundamental in controlling the characteristics of the longer wavelength endogenous oscillations in the Population dynamics described above.
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