Temperature trends in the United States

Linear temperature trends and their uncertainties from data at 359 recording stations in the contiguous United States are investigated. A statistical model is developed that accounts for changes in the site location of each station, the seasonal means and variances inherent in monthly temperature series, and the temporal and spatial correlations found in such data. Least squares estimates of the seasonal trend parameters in the model are derived, as well as appropriate standard errors that take into account the site changes, periodicities and temporal correlations present in the data. The estimates and their standard errors at each station are then spatially analyzed to identify geographical patterns of temperature change across the United States. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.