Moving water to move people - The Toshka project in Egypt - A water forum contribution

The purpose of this paper is to provide an initial assessment of Egypt's plan to resettle population from the Nile Valley to the Western Desert. Known popularly as the Toshka Project, it is formally titled the National Project for the Development of Upper Egypt (NPDUE). The resettlement scheme is entirely dependent on the provision of a reliable source of freshwater. This water will be taken from Lake Nassar, behind the Aswan High Dam, and pumped through a series of canals into the desert, thereby allowing for irrigated agriculture. Through an extensive review of government documents and interviews with both government officials and Egyptian residents (who might be asked to move to the desert), we were able to develop a basic understanding of the project and a preliminary assessment of its potential for success. This was accomplished despite the paucity of published information about the project. To assess the possible success of the project, we looked at six key factors., economic, donor investment, demographics, water availability, technical, and environmental. In the end, it appears that the success of the Toshka project is highly dependent on a continued source of private capital. This capital is expected to come from other Arab countries, and, to date, the major investor in Toshka is Saudi Prince Al Walid. The Egyptian government claims that public investment in the project will be no more than 20 to 25 percent of the total, and adhering to this claim will be important: higher levels of public investment are likely to increase inflationary pressures in the country. The paper concludes with an assessment of whether the potential impacts of the project - whether economic, demographic, or environmental - are likely, to offset the projected benefits of resettling seven million people out of the densely populated Nile Valley.