Journal
AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
Volume 84, Issue 1, Pages 83-89Publisher
BLACKWELL PUBLISHERS
DOI: 10.1111/1467-8276.00244
Keywords
demand estimation; forecasting performance; stochastic seasonality; stochastic trend
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If budget shares have stochastic trend or seasonality or both, then demand equations based on the assumption of deterministic trend and deterministic seasonality will be mis-specified. We test this proposition by estimating a Linearized Almost Ideal (LAI) demand system for meat demand in the United Kingdom using Harvey's structural time series methodology. We demonstrate that the model specification allowing for stochastic trend and deterministic seasonality performs best in terms of diagnostic tests and goodness of fit measures. It is also shown that the model with stochastic trend is better at out-of-sample forecasting.
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