Survival probability estimates for the endangered loggerhead sea turtle resident in southern Great Barrier Reef waters

Sex- and age-class-specific survival of a loggerhead turtle population resident in southern Great Barrier Reef waters was estimated using a long-term capture-mark-recapture (CMR) study and the Cormack-Jolly-Seber modelling approach. The CMR history profiles for 271 loggerheads tagged over 9 years (1984-1992) were classified into two age classes (adult, immature) based on somatic growth and reproductive traits. The sex and maturity status of each turtle was determined from visual examination of reproductive organs using laparoscopy. A reduced-parameter model accounting for constant survival with sex- and time-specific recapture was adequate for estimating age-class-specific survival probabilities, but inclusion of time-specific transient behaviour was informative for the immature age class. The annual fluctuations in the estimated proportion of transient immatures was not a function of sampling effort, but could be due to anomalous oceanographic conditions affecting dispersal of the immature class. There was no sex-specific difference in survival probabilities for either age class, but females were more likely to be recaptured than males, which might be related to behavioural differences such as sex-biased dispersal. The expected annual survival probability for adults was 0.875 (95% CI: 0.84-0.91). The expected annual survival probability for immatures was 0.859 (95% Cl: 0.83-0.89), but when the transients were accounted for, the expected annual survival for the resident immature loggerheads was 0.918 (95% Cl: 0.88-0.96). These are the first substantive estimates of annual survival probabilities for any loggerhead sea-turtle stock and provide a basis for developing a better understanding of loggerhead population dynamics.