Journal
AUSTRALIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL AND RESOURCE ECONOMICS
Volume 54, Issue 1, Pages 43-60Publisher
WILEY
DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-8489.2009.00478.x
Keywords
crop rotations; inter-year dynamics; multiyear drought; stochastic integer programming
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A multiyear discrete stochastic programming model with uncertain water supplies and inter-year crop dynamics is developed to determine: (i) whether a multiyear drought's impact can be more than the sum of its parts, and (ii) whether optimal response to 1 year of drought can increase a producer's vulnerability in subsequent years of drought. A farm system that has inter-year crop dynamics, but lacks inter-annual water storage capabilities, is used as a case study to demonstrate that dynamics unrelated to large reservoirs or groundwater can necessitate a multiyear model to estimate drought's impact. Results demonstrate the importance of analysing individual years of drought in the context of previous and future years of drought.
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