Journal
AUSTRALIAN AND NEW ZEALAND JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH
Volume 34, Issue 3, Pages 311-314Publisher
WILEY-BLACKWELL
DOI: 10.1111/j.1753-6405.2010.00532.x
Keywords
pre-diabetes; duration; epidemiology; screening
Categories
Funding
- Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Health Services Research [331558]
- University of Queensland Post Graduate Research Scholarship
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Objective: Interventions for individuals with pre-diabetes are efficacious, however, identification of people with pre-diabetes does not occur in Australia. This study aims to calculate the duration of pre-diabetes, in order to provide supporting evidence for a screening program. Methods: We carried out a systematic review and random effects meta-analysis to identify if an increased risk of mortality is present in people with pre-diabetes. The result of this meta-analysis as well as information on prevalence, remission of pre-diabetes and transition to diabetes from an Australian cohort study, were used in the software program DisMod to calculate duration. Results: From 2,578 articles identified, 11 studies met the inclusion criteria. The pooled relative risk of all-cause mortality was 1.26 (1.17-1.34) with no sign of heterogeneity between the studies. The average duration of pre-diabetes was 8.5 years in males aged 30+ and 10.3 years in females aged 30+. Conclusions: The duration of pre-diabetes in Australia is long enough to warrant a screening program. The finding is robust to sensitivity testing of very large variations in the epidemiological parameters. Implications: If the interventions following screening are shown to be cost-effective, a strong rationale for the implementation of a screening program exists.
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