An application of calculated fuzzy risk

In this paper, we use the interior-outer-set model to calculate the risk of crop flood and order farming alternatives for Huarong County, China, where only a small sample of eight observations is available. Any risk assessment from the data must be imprecise. The risk calculated by this suggested model is a particular case among imprecise probabilities, called possibility-probability distribution. We discuss in detail how to order alternatives based on a possibility-probability distribution. The result shows, aside subjective assessment, the fuzzy risk can also be calculated. The comparison shows that the ordering based on a calculated fuzzy risk is better than one based on a histogram estimate. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.