Mapping ozone risks for rice in China for years 2000 and 2020 with flux-based and exposure-based doses

We parameterized a multiplicative model of stomatal conductance (g(sto)) for O-3 uptake by rice leaves with the field measurements in a fully open-air ozone (O-3) fumigation experiment. The estimated gsto compared well with the observed one (r(2) = 0.79). By using the g(sto) model for O-3 uptake, we estimated a flux-based O-3 risk (POD6, accumulated stomatal flux of O-3 above a threshold of 6 nmol m(-2) s(-1)) for rice across China in years 2000 and 2020, and compared it with the exposure-based O-3 risk (AOT40, accumulated hourly O-3 concentration above 40 ppb during daytime) for the same period. For the year 2000, both POD6 and AOT40 indicated the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River and the south China being at the highest O-3 risk. From the years 2000-2020, the O-3 risks are projected to double (POD6) or triple (AOT40) in a majority of rice producing areas in the above two regions. Among three major rice cropping in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River, double-late rice is projected to have lower O-3 risk than double-early rice and single rice on the either O-3 risk measure in both 2000 and 2020. In south China, on the other hand, the O-3 risks for double-late rice are comparable to that for early double-rice. In this study, the O-3 risk was not measured as yield loss but as O-3 flux and O-3 exposure. The crop loss estimation would require a relationship between O-3 flux and yield loss for major rice production regions across China. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.