Journal
ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN
Volume 52, Issue 1, Pages 20-38Publisher
TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
DOI: 10.1080/07055900.2013.873014
Keywords
regional climate model; British Columbia ocean circulation model; upwelling; downwelling; sea level rise; eddies; estuarine flow; buoyancy currents
Categories
Funding
- Centre for Ocean Model Development for Application (COMDA) within Fisheries and Oceans Canada (FOC)
- Climate Change Science Initiative
- Aquatic Climate Change Adaptation Services Program within FOC
- Ecosystem Research Initiative
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An ocean circulation model for the British Columbia continental shelf is run with future initial conditions and forcing fields downscaled from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program archive. Average seasonal sea surface temperatures for the period 2065 to 2078 are projected to increase by between 0.5 degrees and 2.0 degrees C with respect to analogous averages from 1995 to 2008. Seasonal sea surface salinities are projected to decrease by as much as 2.0 over the same period, though there are some regions where and periods when small increases are projected. Though stronger winter winds result in larger Haida Eddies, slightly stronger summer winds along the western Vancouver Island shelf do not result in appreciable changes to either the cross-shelf upwelling or to the magnitude of Juan de Fuca Eddies or the timing of their formation. However, increased flows are projected in some seasons for the Rose Spit, Middle Bank, and Goose Island Bank eddies. More precipitation over the watersheds emptying into coastal waters produces larger freshwater discharges and, in particular, a stronger estuarine flow in Juan de Fuca Strait and a stronger Vancouver Island Coastal Current. Generally increasing winds and decreasing density mean that the winter minus summer range of sea surface heights is projected to increase all along the coast.
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