Regional landscape change as a consequence of plantation forestry expansion: an example in the Nelson region, New Zealand

Forestry is expanding in New Zealand and increasingly contributing to the economy. The expansion has also altered the landscape and will continue to do so. In addition, the implementation of the district plan under the Resource Management Act (RMA) 1991 also directly influences the expansion of forestry and the future land-use. Using Nelson region as a case study, the difference in land-use distribution patterns between the mid-1970s and 1990s, and the land-use changes over the 20 years were interpreted. The factors influencing the changes were also examined. Because landscape is mainly changed by human activity, land-use change was considered from an economic perspective. Thus, the productivity, the land-use capability (LUC), and the distance from the city center were considered as well as the physical attributes of the land. The objective was to establish a data set from which future land-use could be predicted. Forest expansion over the period was mainly from shrub or pasture, and horticulture expansion from pasture. Both changes probably were related to the higher returns from forestry and horticulture than from sheep grazing or dairy farming. Based on discriminant analysis, the distance from the city was always the main factor determining the land-use change, which reflects costs and ease of transportation. Conversion to plantation over the 20-year period was closer to the city than conversion to pasture. Since more intensive and higher demand land-use tends to be closer to the city, this means that forestry had priority over pasture during this period. If this tendency continues, it will probably change the regions land-use distribution pattern in the future, The large conversion of shrub to other land-uses over the period is of concern because of risk of reduction in biodiversity and loss of habitat for threatened species. Based on discriminant analysis, the data set in this study was useful for predicting the future land-use. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.