Vulnerability and determinants of reproductive success in the narrow endemic Antirrhinum microphyllum (Scrophularilaceae)

The breeding system and flowering phenology of the narrow endemic Antirrhinum microphyllum (Scrophulariaceae) were studied in order to assess the main factors affecting female reproductive success and to identify existing or potential threats to the viability of its populations. Hand-pollination experiments showed that A. microphyllum is an allogamous self-incompatible species. In both populations studied, the flowering season was 4 mo long and mean flowering duration per plant was about I mo. Peal, flower production took place between mid-April and mid-May and overlapped with the period of activity of the main pollinator, Rhodanthidium sticticum (Megachilidae). Estimated mean number of seeds produced per plant was 9391, showing that population viability is not presently limited by seed output. The study of the direct and indirect effects of plant size, phenological traits (first flowering date, flowering duration, and flowering synchrony), and distance to neighbor plants on reproductive success was performed using structural equation modeling (SEM). In both populations, number of flowers and plant size were the main factors that determined the total number of fruits produced by a plant. First flowering date and flowering synchrony also affected fruit production. Multisample comparison of path coefficients for the two populations rejected the possibility that reproductive patterns could be described by one single model.