PREDICTION OF TYPE II SOLAR RADIO BURSTS BY THREE-DIMENSIONAL MHD CORONAL MASS EJECTION AND KINETIC RADIO EMISSION SIMULATIONS

Type II solar radio bursts are the primary radio emissions generated by shocks and they are linked with impending space weather events at Earth. We simulate type II bursts by combining elaborate three-dimensional MHD simulations of realistic coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at the Sun with an analytic kinetic radiation theory developed recently. The modeling includes initialization with solar magnetic and active region fields reconstructed from magnetograms of the Sun, a flux rope of the initial CME dimensioned with STEREO spacecraft observations, and a solar wind driven with averaged empirical data. We demonstrate impressive accuracy in time, frequency, and intensity for the CME and type II burst observed on 2011 February 15. This implies real understanding of the physical processes involved regarding the radio emission excitation by shocks and supports the near-term development of a capability to predict and track these events for space weather prediction.