Habitat loss and extinction in the hotspots of biodiversity

Nearly half the world's vascular plant species and one-third of terrestrial vertebrates are endemic to 25 hotspots of biodiversity, each of which has at least 1500 endemic plant species. None of these hotspots have more than one-third of their pristine habitat remaining. Historically, they covered 12% of the land's surface, but today their intact habitat covers only 1.4% of the land. As a result of this habitat loss, we expect many of the hotspot endemics to have either become extinct or-because much of the habitat loss is recent-to be threatened with extinction. We used World Conservation Union [IUCN] Red Lists to test this expectation. Overall, between one-half and two-thirds of all threatened plants and 57% of all threatened terrestrial vertebrates are hotspot endemics. For birds and mammals, in general, predictions of extinction in the hotspots based on habitat loss match numbers of species independently judged extinct or threatened. In two classes of hotspots the match is not as close. On oceanic islands, habitat loss underestimates extinction because introduced species have driven extinctions beyond those caused by habitat loss on these islands. In large hotspots, conversely, habitat loss overestimates extinction, suggesting scale dependence (this effect is also apparent for plants). For reptiles, amphibians, and plants, many fewer hotspot endemics are considered threatened or extinct than we would expect based on habitat loss. This mismatch is small in temperate hotspots, however, suggesting that many threatened endemic species in the poorly known tropical hotspots have yet to be included on the IUCN Red Lists. We then asked in which hotspots the consequences of further habitat loss (either absolute or given current rates of deforestation) would be most serious. Our results suggest that the Eastern Arc and Coastal Forests of Tanzania-Kenya, Philippines, and Polynesia-Micronesia can least afford to lose more habitat and that, if current deforestation rates continue, the Caribbean, Tropical Andes, Philippines, Mesoamerica, Sundaland, Indo-Burma, Madagascar, and Choco-Darien-Western Ecuador will lose the most species in the near future. Without urgent conservation intervention, we face mass extinctions in the hotspots.