Long-term prediction of the water level and salinity in the Dead Sea

The long-term water level variations of the Dead Sea (DS) were assessed using a previously developed simulation model. The model establishes the condition of the DS by evaluating a series of ordinary differential equations describing mass balances on the water and major chemical species. The DS was modelled as a two-layer system. The model was modified using up-to-date inflow data and recent hypsometric graphs to derive the volume-area-level relationships. Three scenarios were studied: continuation of current conditions; a cessation in industrial activity when the DS water level drops to a certain level; and a simplified weather change scenario. The model predicted that the DS will not dry up, but its level will continue to drop with a decelerating rate with no equilibrium level in 500 years. Changing climate would accelerate the level drop. In the 500 year period, after an initial increase, the DS salinity drops. The opposite behaviour is noted in the evaporation rate, which increases after an initial decrease. Ceasing industrial pumping would eventually restore the DS to its normal level, but with changed conditions. Copyright (C) 2002 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.