Climate change and latitudinal patterns of intertidal thermal stress

The interaction of climate and the timing of low tides along the West Coast of the United States creates a complex mosaic of thermal environments, in which northern sites can be more thermally stressful than southern sites. Thus, climate change may not lead to a poleward shift in the distribution of intertidal organisms, as has been proposed, but instead will likely cause localized extinctions at a series of hot spots. Patterns of exposure to extreme climatic conditions are temporally variable, and tidal predictions suggest that in the next 3 to 5 years hot spots are likely to appear at several northern sites.