Journal
ASIA-PACIFIC JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH
Volume 26, Issue 1, Pages 48-57Publisher
SAGE PUBLICATIONS INC
DOI: 10.1177/1010539513490195
Keywords
public health; communicable diseases; epidemiology; climate change; occupational and environmental health
Categories
Funding
- National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program) [2012CB955504]
- National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) [30972563]
- Health Scientific Research Special Funds Programs, China [201202006]
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The aim of this study is to develop a model that correctly identifies and quantifies the relationship between dengue and meteorological factors in Guangzhou, China. By cross-correlation analysis, meteorological variables and their lag effects were determined. According to the epidemic characteristics of dengue in Guangzhou, those statistically significant variables were modeled by a zero-inflated Poisson regression model. The number of dengue cases and minimum temperature at 1-month lag, along with average relative humidity at 0- to 1-month lag were all positively correlated with the prevalence of dengue fever, whereas wind velocity and temperature in the same month along with rainfall at 2 months' lag showed negative association with dengue incidence. Minimum temperature at 1-month lag and wind velocity in the same month had a greater impact on the dengue epidemic than other variables in Guangzhou.
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