Estimation of Fatalities Due to Road Traffic Crashes in Karachi, Pakistan, Using Capture-Recapture Method

The objective of the study was to estimate the magnitude of road traffic fatalities occurring in Karachi, Pakistan. A 2-source capture-recapture model was applied to obtain a reliable estimate of the magnitude of the problem. A conservative adjusted estimate of fatalities generated, using data from 2 sources matched by at least name, gender, age, and location. In 2008, police reported 616 fatalities whereas hospitals recorded 1092 fatalities due to road traffic crashes. The capture-recapture analysis estimated at least 1375 fatalities. Police data show 55% deficit from the estimated figure and 43.6% deficit from the observed one, whereas hospital data show 20.6% deficit from the estimation. Road traffic crashes and resulting fatalities and injuries are a much more substantial health problem than is evident from official statistics. The capture-recapture analysis can be used as a tool to provide affordable and reliable estimates in developing countries where routine official statistics suffer from underreporting.