Net carbon flux from agriculture: Carbon emissions, carbon sequestration, crop yield, and land-use change

There is a potential to sequester carbon in soil by changing agricultural management practices. These changes in agricultural management can also result in changes in fossil-fuel use, agricultural inputs, and the carbon emissions associated with fossil fuels and other inputs. Management practices that alter crop yields and land productivity can affect the amount of land used for crop production with further significant implications for both emissions and sequestration potential. Data from a 20-year agricultural experiment were used to analyze carbon sequestration, carbon emissions, crop yield, and land-use change and to estimate the impact that carbon sequestration strategies might have on the net flux of carbon to the atmosphere. Results indicate that if changes in management result in decreased crop yields, the net carbon flux can be greater under the new system, assuming that crop demand remains the same and additional lands are brought into production. Conversely, if increasing crop yields lead to land abandonment, the overall carbon savings from changes in management will be greater than when soil carbon sequestration alone is considered.