Risk of age-related macular degeneration in eyes with macular drusen or hyperpigmentation

Objective: To quantify the 5-year risk of age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in eyes with different macular drusen characteristics (ie, size, type, location, and total area) or hyperpigmentation in a population-based cohort. Methods: The Blue Mountains Eye Study examined 3654 residents during 1992-1994; 2335 (75.1% of survivors) were reexamined during 1997-1999. Retinal photographs were graded using the Wisconsin Age-Related Maculopathy Grading System. Incident AMD lesions were defined by development of neovascular AMD or geographic atrophy in eyes without these lesions at baseline (eyes at risk). Age-adjusted relative risks (RRs) were determined. Generalized estimating equation models were used to estimate odds ratios, adjusting for the correlation between eyes and other AMD risk factors. Main Outcome Measure: Incidence of AMD. Results: Of the 4634 eyes at risk, 52 (1.1%) developed neovascular or atrophic AMD lesions over 5 years. In right eyes, presence vs absence of the following macular signs predicted AMD: drusen that were 125 mum or larger (13.9 vs 0.6%; age-adjusted RR, 5.7; 95% confidence interval [Cl], 3.6-9.0), indistinct soft or reticular drusen (23.2% vs 0.4%, RR, 9.9; 95% CI, 6.4-15.4), total drusen area of half the disc area or more (31.4% vs 0.6%; RR, 13.5; 95% CI, 8.0-22.8), and hyperpigmentation (14.4% vs 0.5%; RR, 8.0; 95% Cl, 5.4-11.9). After adjusting for age, sex, and smoking status, eyes with these signs at baseline had a high likelihood of developing AMD. Eyes with Age-Related Eye Disease Study categories 3 and 4 were 5 times more likely to develop AMD compared with eyes in categories I and 2. Conclusion: This study quantifies the 5-year risk of AMD in eyes with macular drusen and hyperpigmentation.