Inter-annual variability in the breeding performance of seabirds in relation to oceanographic anomalies that affect the Crozet and the Kerguelen sectors of the Southern Ocean

Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of inter-annual variation in Sea-Surface Temperatures (SST) associated with a latitudinal shift of frontal structures in the Southern Ocean. However, the long-term consequences of these major climatic events on the biotic environment remain poorly understood. We studied the effect of SST anomalies in the southern Indian Ocean on the breeding success of eight seabird species, and found these temperature anomalies to have different effects depending on the foraging habitat of the species. The breeding success of four seabird species foraging mainly south of the Polar Front in Antarctic waters was significantly depressed by warm SST occurring mainly in winter and spring, prior to breeding. Conversely, warm SST anomalies were associated with a higher breeding success for species foraging mainly north of the Polar Front, while no significant effect was found for two species that forage on the Kerguelen plateau. These different responses to changes in the SST were also observed for two closely related species (sooty albatross Phoebetria fusca and light-mantled sooty albatross. palpebrata) breeding at Kerguelen. These observations highlight the importance of multi-species long-term monitoring programs for understanding the ecological consequences of environmental variability. Our results suggest that the predicted southward shift of the Polar Front caused by oceanic warming could lead to an important decrease in the breeding performance of top predator seabirds depending on the location and changes of their foraging habitat in relation the Polar Front.