The implications of tourism specialisation in the long run: an econometric analysis for 13 OECD economies

The paper aims to illumine the longrun impact of specialisation in tourism. It is shown that specialisation in tourism may not be deleterious for economic welfare once the terms of trade are considered. Conditions for an improvement in welfare are laid out and their existence tested by econometric methods within an almost ideal demand system formulation of tourist expenditure for 13 OECD economies. The analysis uses cointegration techniques and novel sequential break dating procedures evaluated where the time dimension is small. The values of the estimated parameters suggest that long run growth may not be harmed by tourism specialisation. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.