Journal
PHYSICA A-STATISTICAL MECHANICS AND ITS APPLICATIONS
Volume 324, Issue 1-2, Pages 317-322Publisher
ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
DOI: 10.1016/S0378-4371(02)01868-X
Keywords
Markov chain; mean field approximation; stock market
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We study a multivariate Markov chain model as a stochastic model of the price changes of portfolios in the framework of the mean field approximation. The time series of price changes are coded into the sequences of up and down spins according to their signs. We start with the discussion for small portfolios consisting of two stock issues. The generalization of our model to arbitrary size of portfolio is constructed by a recurrence relation. The resultant form of the joint probability of the stationary state coincides with Gibbs measure assigned to each configuration of spin glass model. Through the analysis of actual portfolios, it has been shown that the synchronization of the direction of the price changes is well described by the model. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
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