Changes in flowering and abundance of Delphinium nuttallianum (Ranunculaceae) in response to a subalpine climate warming experiment

High-altitude and high-latitude sites are expected to be very sensitive to global warming, because the biological activity of most plants is restricted by the length of the short snowfree season, which is determined by climate. Long-term observational studies in subalpine meadows of the Colorado Rocky Mountains have shown a strong positive correlation between snowpack and flower production by the forb Delphinium nuttallianum. If a warmer climate reduces annual snowfall in this region then global warming might reduce fitness in D. nuttallianum. In this article we report effects of experimental warming on the abundance and flower production of D. nuttallianum. Plant abundance (both flowering and vegetative plants) was slightly greater on warmed than control plots prior to initiation of the warming treatment in 1991. Since 1994 experimental warming has had a negative effect on D. nuttallianum flower production, reducing both the abundance of flowering plants and the total number of flowers per plant. Flower bud abortion was higher in the heated plots than the controls only in 1994 and 1999. Results from both the warming experiment and analyses of unmanipulated long-term plots suggest that global warming may affect the fecundity of D. nuttallianum, which may have cascading effects on the pollinators that depend on it and on the fecundity of plants that share similar pollinators.