The evolution of plumage polymorphism in birds of prey and owls:: the apostatic selection hypothesis revisited

Co-evolution between phenotypic variation and other traits is of paramount importance for our understanding of the origin and maintenance of polymorphism in natural populations. We tested whether the evolution of plumage polymorphism in birds of prey and owls was supported by the apostatic selection hypothesis using ecological and life-history variables in birds of prey and owls and performing both cross taxa and independent contrast analyses. For both bird groups, we did not find any support for the apostatic selection hypothesis being the maintaining factor for the polymorphism: plumage polymorphism was not more common in taxa hunting avian or mammalian prey, nor in migratory species. In contrast, we found that polymorphism was related to variables such as sexual plumage dimorphism, population size and range size, as well as breeding altitude and breeding latitude. These results imply that the most likely evolutionary correlate of polymorphism in both bird groups is population size, different plumage morphs might simply arise in larger populations most likely because of a higher probability of mutations and then be maintained by sexual selection.