Modeling the impacts of climatic change and variability on the reliability, resilience, and vulnerability of a water resource system

[1] During the last decade, there have been increasing concerns over water resource drought in northern England, brought about by the 1995 Yorkshire drought with an estimated 5-month rainfall return period of 200 years. The impacts of climatic change and variability on water resource reliability, resilience, and vulnerability in this region are examined by modeling changes to weather type frequency, mean rainfall statistics, and potential evapotranspiration. Results indicate future improvements in water resource reliability due to increased winter rainfall but reductions in resource resilience and an increased vulnerability to drought. Severe droughts comparable to that of 1995 show only a slight increase in frequency by 2080. However, there are significant increases in both the magnitude and duration of severe water resource drought, as a consequence of summer rainfall reductions and increased climatic variability. This research provides a basis for the future planning and management of the Yorkshire water resource system.