Mesothelioma trends in the United States: An update based on surveillance, epidemiology, and end results program data for 1973 through 2003

Using 1973-2000 mesothelioma incidence data released by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program in April 2003, the authors estimated the parameters of a birth-cohort and age model to determine whether previously reported patterns of mesothelioma in the United States have changed. Compared with analyses based on data through 1992, a slower decline was found in male cases immediately after a peak in 2000-2004, but no other notable changes in the time pattern were detected. Analysis confirmed that the annual number of male mesothelioma cases, which increased steeply from the 1970s through the mid-1990s, has leveled off in terms of both the age-adjusted rate and the absolute numbers of cases. After a peak of approximately 2,000 cases, a return to background levels is expected by 2055. The total projected number of male mesothelioma cases in 2003-2054 is approximately 71,000. The maximum lifetime risk for males, which occurs for the 1925-1929 birth cohort, is 1.8 x 10(-3). The age-adjusted rate for females is constant, as are the female lifetime mesothelioma risk across birth cohorts (3.6 x 10(-4)) and the annual risk (3.9 x 10(-6)). The time pattern of cases for females supports the existence of a threshold exposure for mesothelioma and a quantifiable background rate.