Medium-range planning economics of future electrical-power generation options

In their continuous planning for load growth, electricity utilities search for the most economic generation schemes. But this will be subject to a number of constraints, such as the type of fuel available and compliance with national environmental standards. In this paper, medium-range planning economics of using alternative fuels options for electrical-power generation systems in Jordan is discussed. Imported natural gas, heavy fuel oil, coal and local oil shale are compared. A net-present-value model was used to compare electricity generation cost for different types of thermal power plants. Sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the influence of the most important variables, such as unit capital and fuel prices, discount and inflation rates. It was found that imported natural gas, as a future primary fuel, to supply new combined cycle and/or upgraded existing gas turbine stations, in Jordan, represents the best option during the study period. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.