Journal
THEORETICAL POPULATION BIOLOGY
Volume 65, Issue 2, Pages 179-191Publisher
ACADEMIC PRESS INC ELSEVIER SCIENCE
DOI: 10.1016/j.tpb.2003.10.002
Keywords
influenza; antigenic drift; cross-immunity; herd immunity; annual epidemics; pathogen invasion; evolutionary epidemiology
Funding
- NIGMS NIH HHS [GM28016, 1 R01 GM607929] Funding Source: Medline
Ask authors/readers for more resources
Influenza in humans is characterised by strongly annual dynamics and antigenic evolution leading to partial escape from prior host immunity. The variability of new epidemic strains depends on the amount of virus currently circulating. In this paper, the amount of antigenic variation produced each year is dependent on the epidemic size. Our model reduces to a one-dimensional map and a full mathematical analysis is presented. This simple system suggests some basic principles which may be more generally applicable. In particular, for diseases with antigenic drift, vaccination may be doubly beneficial. Not only does it protect the population through classical herd immunity, but the overall case reduction reduces the chance of new variants being produced; hence, subsequent epidemics may be milder as a result of this positive feedback. Also, a disease with a high innate rate of antigenic variation will always be able to invade a susceptible population, whereas a disease with less potential for variation may require several introduction events to become endemic. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Authors
I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.
Reviews
Recommended
No Data Available