Adaptation to climate change to enhance food security and preserve environmental quality: example for southern Sri Lanka

Adaptation strategies to climate change have been explored using a linked field-scale basin-scale modeling framework for Walawe basin, Sri Lanka. An integrated approach was followed concentrating on enhancement of food security and preservation of environmental quality. Climate change projections were extracted from the Hadley Climate Center (HadCM3) coupled global circulation model (GCM). Impact and adaptation strategies were evaluated with a coupled modeling framework based on the soil-water-atmosphere-plant (SWAP) field scale model and the water and salinity basin model (WSBM) basin scale model. Three time periods were considered where the 1961-1990 period was used to adjust climate change projections to local conditions and to provide a reference to compare expected changes in the near future (2010-2039) and distant future (2070-2099). The overall impact of climate change on food security and environmental quality appears to be positive as a result of enhanced crop growth due to higher CO2 levels and a small increase in precipitation. However, extremes will be more profound in the future, making adaptation strategies necessary. Results from the modeling framework have been presented in a format accessible to water resources managers and policy makers to enable them to make sound decisions on the required adaptation strategies. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.