Rainfall Threshold Curves Extraction by Considering Rainfall-Runoff Model Uncertainty

Flood warning systems can be useful for decision makers allowing them to adopt required initiatives for prevention or mitigation of life and property losses. Rainfall threshold curves can be employed when using these systems. Having employed these curves, it is possible to compare observed/forecasted rainfall with a rainfall threshold curve notifying decision makers about an oncoming flood event. Previous studies showed that using deterministic inputs for rainfall patterns as well as constant parameter values in the rainfall-runoff model are the main drawback in flood warning forecast. In this study, uncertainties in the above mentioned pattern and parameters are taken into account for extracting better rainfall threshold curves. Results demonstrated that the developed extracted rainfall threshold curves are better than the previous ones as far as the index employed in this respect are concerned.