Journal
JOURNAL OF HYDRAULIC ENGINEERING-ASCE
Volume 130, Issue 5, Pages 389-397Publisher
ASCE-AMER SOC CIVIL ENGINEERS
DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9429(2004)130:5(389)
Keywords
dam failure; uncertainty analysis; peak flow; erosion; dams, embankment; risk management
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Risk assessment studies considering the failure of embankment dams often require the prediction of basic geometric and temporal parameters of a breach. or the estimation of peak breach outflows. Many of the relations most commonly used to make these predictions were developed from statistical analyses of data collected from historic dam failures. The prediction uncertainties of these methods are widely recognized to be very large, but have never been specifically quantified. This paper presents an analysis of the uncertainty of many of these breach parameter and peak flow prediction methods. Application of the methods and the uncertainty analysis are illustrated through a case Study of a risk assessment recently performed by the Bureau of Reclamation for a large embankment dam in North Dakota.
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