Predicting spasticity after stroke in those surviving to 12 months

Objective: To measure muscle tone in a cohort of patients 12 months after stroke and develop a preliminary model, using data recorded routinely after stroke, to predict who will develop spasticity. Design: A cohort study. Setting: Initially hospitalized but subsequently community-dwelling stroke survivors in Liverpool, United Kingdom. Subjects: One hundred and six consecutively presenting stroke patients surviving to 12 months. Main outcome measures: Spasticity measured at a range of joints using the Tone Assessment Scale. Results: The Tone Assessment Scale revealed spasticity in 38 (36%) patients and more severe spasticity, in 21 (20%) of the 106 patients. Logistic regression analysis revealed that lower day 7 Barthel Index score and early arm or leg weakness were significant predictors of abnormal muscle tone; and lower day 7 Barthel Index score, left-sided weakness and ever smoked to be significant predictors of more severe muscle tone. Conclusions: Using the models, it may be possible to predict whether or not spasticity will develop in patients 12 months after stroke. The utility of the models is aided by their use of predictor variables that are routinely collected as part of stroke care in hospital and which are easy to measure. The models need testing prospectively in a new cohort of patients in order to test their validity, reliability and utility and to determine if other data could improve their efficiency.