Epidemiology and natural history of acute patellar dislocation

Background: The goals of this study were to (1) define the epidemiology of acute patellar dislocation, (2) determine the risk of subsequent patellar instability episodes (subluxation and/or redislocation) during the study period, and (3) identify risk factors for subsequent instability episodes. Study Design: Prospective cohort study. Methods: The authors prospectively followed 189 patients for a period of 2 to 5 years. Historical data, injury mechanisms, and physical and radiographic measurements were recorded to identify potential risk factors for poor outcomes. Results: Risk was highest among females 10 to 17 years old. Patients presenting with a prior history of instability were more likely to be female (P <.05) and were older than first-time dislocation patients (P <.05). Fewer first-time dislocators; (17%) had episodes of instability during follow-up than patients with a previous history of instability (49%) (P <.01). After adjusting for demographics, patients with a prior history had 7 times higher odds of subsequent instability episodes during follow-up than first time dislocators (adjusted odds ratio = 6.6, P <.001). Conclusions: Patellar dislocators who present with a history of patellofemoral instability are more likely to be female, are older, and have greater risk of subsequent patellar instability episodes than first-time patellar dislocators. Risk of recurrent patellar instability episodes in either knee is much higher in this group than in first-time dislocators.